Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

155.88 – 170.27

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.3 ±11.7

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 89.05Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 32.63Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 34.2Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.7 ±12.8

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 172.19Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9056CyberHuskies 9056

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 11.03Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10937River Valley RADs+

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX -12.95Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1512, 8708, 10066

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1512, 8708, 10066

Auto

0.8 1%

Teleop

96.2 66%

Endgame

48.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 95, 9056, 10937

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 95, 9056, 10937

Auto

17.6 11%

Teleop

89.8 54%

Endgame

57.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.9pts

Blue projected score170.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.4
Score range: 117–209
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 215.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.3Season APEX266.7

0.8Auto17.6

96.2Teleop89.8

48.5Endgame57.4

68Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	37
teleop	33	75
endgame	23	34
foul	0	0
total	75	146

Result

Final score

75 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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