Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

144.76 – 18.93

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

59 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.6 ±13.3

6690MV roboPride

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 33.1Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 57.74Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2523Tech Storm

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 53.92Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.4 ±14.4

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 23.84Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10108Hazard5

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 12.63Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX -17.54Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6690, 6153, 2523

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6690, 6153, 2523

Auto

22.8 16%

Teleop

85.2 60%

Endgame

34.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11175, 10108, 9096

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11175, 10108, 9096

Auto

9.7 55%

Teleop

7.8 44%

Endgame

0.2 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score144.8pts

Blue projected score18.9pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125.8
Score range: -21–185
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 82 vs event baseline 221.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.6Season APEX189.4

22.8Auto9.7

85.2Teleop7.8

34.1Endgame0.2

12Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	10
teleop	29	10
endgame	0	3
foul	0	0
total	59	23

Result

Final score

59 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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