Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

352.34 – 381.95

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

262 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 58.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 583.8 ±10.2

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 98.99Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10937River Valley RADs+

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX -31.16Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 284.51Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.8 ±11.2

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 242.95Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1247Blood, Sweat, and Gears

Season APEX 11Event APEX -6.99Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 145.99Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4909, 10937, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

352.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 10937, 6329

Auto

74.7 21%

Teleop

192.6 55%

Endgame

81.6 23%

Strengths

· 6329 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 195, 1247, 95

/ 100 compat

Projected

382 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 195, 1247, 95

Auto

65.6 17%

Teleop

224.3 59%

Endgame

89.7 24%

Strengths

· 195 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score352.3pts

Blue projected score382pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.6
Score range: 306–428
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 618 vs event baseline 254.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

583.8Season APEX476.8

74.7Auto65.6

192.6Teleop224.3

81.6Endgame89.7

54Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	20
teleop	119	241
endgame	50	95
foul	0	0
total	262	356

Result

Final score

262 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 58.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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