Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

526.66 – 214.74

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

557 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 48.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 746.7 ±9.3

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 197.86Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 111.18Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 217.62Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416.8 ±10.4

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 115.1Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 82.03Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 17.61Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 195, 839, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

526.7 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 195, 839, 5687

Auto

93.6 18%

Teleop

315.0 60%

Endgame

113.1 22%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 319, 1512, 1729

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 319, 1512, 1729

Auto

5.8 3%

Teleop

144.4 70%

Endgame

55.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.88 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score526.7pts

Blue projected score214.7pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 311.9
Score range: 178–564
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 838 vs event baseline 207.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

746.7Season APEX416.8

93.6Auto5.8

315Teleop144.4

113.1Endgame55.1

46Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	27
teleop	306	142
endgame	157	102
foul	0	10
total	557	281

Result

Final score

557 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 48.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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