Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

17.13 – 206.51

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

7 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 65.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.7 ±12.2

1247Blood, Sweat, and Gears

Season APEX 11Event APEX -18.86Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX 8.53Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 27.46Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481.5 ±14.5

10945ELP's Mad CAD-ers

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX -7.69Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 223.63Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10108Hazard5

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX -9.43Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1247, 11269, 11175

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1247, 11269, 11175

Auto

-5.0 0%

Teleop

29.4 100%

Endgame

-1.7 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10945, 6329, 10108

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10945, 6329, 10108

Auto

71.5 36%

Teleop

82.3 41%

Endgame

45.1 23%

Strengths

· 6329 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score17.1pts

Blue projected score206.5pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -189.4
Score range: -21–245
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 209.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.7Season APEX481.5

-5Auto71.5

29.4Teleop82.3

-1.7Endgame45.1

20Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	101
teleop	7	139
endgame	0	88
foul	0	0
total	7	328

Result

Final score

7 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 65.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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