Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.23 – 230.91

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 82.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.5 ±11.7

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX -34.42Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 147.78Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 27.87Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 423.9 ±12.4

8421CRUSADERS

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 45.17Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2523Tech Storm

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 64.97Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 120.77Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9096, 1073, 10066

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9096, 1073, 10066

Auto

24.1 21%

Teleop

60.8 53%

Endgame

29.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8421, 2523, 166

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8421, 2523, 166

Auto

37.5 17%

Teleop

116.6 52%

Endgame

70.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.2pts

Blue projected score230.9pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.7
Score range: 103–269
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 444 vs event baseline 208.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.5Season APEX423.9

24.1Auto37.5

60.8Teleop116.6

29.9Endgame70.2

62Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	48
teleop	121	82
endgame	92	54
foul	0	0
total	260	184

Result

Final score

260 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 82.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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