Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

179.03 – 257.04

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.1 ±11.4

10138VikingBot

Season APEX 39Event APEX 28.81Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 67.45Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 82.77Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 530.7 ±10.5

138Entropy

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 41.27Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 209.66Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 6.11Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10138, 4909, 2342

/ 100 compat

Projected

179 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10138, 4909, 2342

Auto

27.5 15%

Teleop

123.8 69%

Endgame

28.7 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 138, 5687, 1729

/ 100 compat

Projected

257 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 138, 5687, 1729

Auto

57.0 22%

Teleop

159.3 62%

Endgame

39.5 15%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179pts

Blue projected score257pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78
Score range: 142–294
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 205.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.1Season APEX530.7

27.5Auto57

123.8Teleop159.3

28.7Endgame39.5

14Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	106
teleop	89	131
endgame	44	31
foul	5	0
total	178	268

Result

Final score

178 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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