Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.85 – 83.36

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

217 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.9 ±13.5

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 150.54Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 36.47Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11468Lisbon Panther Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 21.84Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.7 ±11.7

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 79.94Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 25.23Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10937River Valley RADs+

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX -21.81Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1073, 11175, 11468

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1073, 11175, 11468

Auto

21.1 11%

Teleop

117.4 60%

Endgame

58.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 839, 8708, 10937

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 839, 8708, 10937

Auto

27.9 33%

Teleop

30.7 36%

Endgame

26.7 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score208.9pts

Blue projected score83.4pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125.5
Score range: 46–246
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 206.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.9Season APEX241.7

21.1Auto27.9

117.4Teleop30.7

58Endgame26.7

105Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	14
teleop	120	74
endgame	33	64
foul	35	15
total	217	167

Result

Final score

217 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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