Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

411.75 – 84.93

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

451 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 766.3 ±9.3

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 114.03Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 88.18Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 209.54Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.9 ±12.2

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX -5.32Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 76.93Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10945ELP's Mad CAD-ers

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 13.32Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 166, 1512, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

411.8 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 166, 1512, 6329

Auto

67.0 16%

Teleop

227.6 56%

Endgame

114.7 28%

Strengths

· 6329 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10910, 6153, 10945

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10910, 6153, 10945

Auto

29.0 36%

Teleop

49.6 62%

Endgame

1.5 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.87 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score411.8pts

Blue projected score84.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 326.8
Score range: 48–449
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 484 vs event baseline 204.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

766.3Season APEX204.9

67Auto29

227.6Teleop49.6

114.7Endgame1.5

22Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	10
teleop	244	15
endgame	145	8
foul	20	0
total	451	33

Result

Final score

451 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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