Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

297.23 – 259.48

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

270 – 303

Prediction missed · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535.9 ±10.8

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 18.55Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 32.31Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 246.37Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 423.8 ±11.7

9101Green Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 57.61Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 178.21Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 23.66Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1729, 10066, 125

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1729, 10066, 125

Auto

58.1 20%

Teleop

140.2 49%

Endgame

85.4 30%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9101, 195, 6933

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9101, 195, 6933

Auto

47.1 18%

Teleop

138.6 54%

Endgame

70.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score297.2pts

Blue projected score259.5pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.8
Score range: 223–333
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 573 vs event baseline 200.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535.9Season APEX423.8

58.1Auto47.1

140.2Teleop138.6

85.4Endgame70.8

81Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	86
teleop	121	134
endgame	62	83
foul	10	0
total	270	303

Result

Final score

270 – 303

Prediction missed · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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