Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.55 – 96.55

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.4 ±12.8

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 42.25Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 35.42Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10945ELP's Mad CAD-ers

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX -3.12Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.9 ±15.3

6690MV roboPride

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 39.93Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11468Lisbon Panther Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 10.01Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

138Entropy

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 46.61Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11175, 10066, 10945

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11175, 10066, 10945

Auto

24.5 34%

Teleop

26.9 37%

Endgame

20.7 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6690, 11468, 138

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6690, 11468, 138

Auto

16.1 19%

Teleop

47.7 56%

Endgame

21.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.6pts

Blue projected score96.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22
Score range: 29–143
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 107 vs event baseline 254.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.4Season APEX199.9

24.5Auto16.1

26.9Teleop47.7

20.7Endgame21.7

44Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	0
teleop	27	46
endgame	12	9
foul	0	0
total	52	55

Result

Final score

52 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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