Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.12 – 101.03

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.9 ±12.2

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 92.9Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 24.63Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 54.59Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.5 ±12.8

10945ELP's Mad CAD-ers

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 19.55Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 70.34Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10937River Valley RADs+

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 11.14Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2342, 10066, 8085

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2342, 10066, 8085

Auto

30.1 17%

Teleop

92.8 53%

Endgame

52.1 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10945, 1512, 10937

/ 100 compat

Projected

101 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10945, 1512, 10937

Auto

51.5 55%

Teleop

23.4 25%

Endgame

18.8 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score172.1pts

Blue projected score101pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.1
Score range: 64–209
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 207.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.9Season APEX205.5

30.1Auto51.5

92.8Teleop23.4

52.1Endgame18.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	8
teleop	117	71
endgame	53	19
foul	0	0
total	210	98

Result

Final score

210 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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