Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.31 – 183.74

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 430

Prediction correct · off by 140.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.2 ±13.9

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX -3.65Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 72.68Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11468Lisbon Panther Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 29.28Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 545.2 ±11.7

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 28.07Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 158Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8421CRUSADERS

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX -2.33Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8708, 1729, 11468

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8708, 1729, 11468

Auto

15.9 18%

Teleop

47.8 54%

Endgame

25.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6153, 6329, 8421

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6153, 6329, 8421

Auto

51.1 28%

Teleop

74.5 41%

Endgame

58.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.3pts

Blue projected score183.7pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.4
Score range: 63–219
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 494 vs event baseline 194.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.2Season APEX545.2

15.9Auto51.1

47.8Teleop74.5

25.3Endgame58

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	99
teleop	17	239
endgame	23	92
foul	5	0
total	64	430

Result

Final score

64 – 430

Prediction correct · off by 140.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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