Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.36 – 87.67

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

311 – 27

Prediction missed · off by 152.2 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 461.7 ±11.1

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 7.89Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 20Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 39.47Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.6 ±13.9

10108Hazard5

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 31.66Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 2.09Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 53.92Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9096, 2342, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9096, 2342, 5687

Auto

36.9 52%

Teleop

22.1 31%

Endgame

11.6 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10108, 8708, 10910

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10108, 8708, 10910

Auto

40.6 40%

Teleop

48.1 48%

Endgame

11.7 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.4pts

Blue projected score87.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.3
Score range: 32–123
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 192.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

461.7Season APEX237.6

36.9Auto40.6

22.1Teleop48.1

11.6Endgame11.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	4
teleop	189	5
endgame	52	3
foul	0	15
total	311	27

Result

Final score

311 – 27

Prediction missed · off by 152.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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