Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
202.25 – 0
94%6%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
174 – 76
Prediction correct · off by 52.1 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 350.1 ±10
Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 39.46Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 44.19Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 118.6Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.4 ±13.9
Season APEX 39Event APEX -37.53Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 82.3Event APEX -13.11Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 32.61Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6153, 4909, 839
65
/ 100 compatProjected
202.3 pts
~2.6 RP (district)
Teams: 6153, 4909, 839
Auto
31.8 16%
Teleop
133.8 65%
Endgame
38.7 19%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 14%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10138, 10066, 9056
8
/ 100 compatProjected
-18 pts
~0.8 RP (district)
Teams: 10138, 10066, 9056
Auto
-5.2 73%
Teleop
-4.9 69%
Endgame
3.0 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 14%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.64 · Blue 0.8
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score202.3pts
Blue projected score-18pts
Red win probability94%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 60%, blue 54%
Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 12%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 202.3
- Score range
- -36–238
- Upset likelihood
- 6%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
350.1Season APEX191.4
31.8Auto-5.2
133.8Teleop-4.9
38.7Endgame3
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 25 | 25 |
| teleop | 122 | 16 |
| endgame | 27 | 20 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 174 | 76 |
Result
Final score
174 – 76
Prediction correct · off by 52.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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