Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

301.41 – 139.72

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 95.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 480.2 ±11.2

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 41.81Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9101Green Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 22.4Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 237.2Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.5 ±12.2

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 3.04Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 126.53Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10138VikingBot

Season APEX 39Event APEX 10.15Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10910, 9101, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10910, 9101, 5687

Auto

96.2 32%

Teleop

159.3 54%

Endgame

41.7 14%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9096, 319, 10138

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9096, 319, 10138

Auto

21.7 16%

Teleop

79.1 60%

Endgame

31.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.58 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score301.4pts

Blue projected score139.7pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161.7
Score range: 94–347
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 254.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

480.2Season APEX236.5

96.2Auto21.7

159.3Teleop79.1

41.7Endgame31.8

8Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	18
teleop	136	0
endgame	4	5
foul	0	0
total	227	23

Result

Final score

227 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 95.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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