Final · Finals 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

521.19 – 549.75

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

532 – 367

Prediction missed · off by 96.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 713 ±9.3

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 41.63Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 242.9Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 236.66Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 799.3 ±8.8

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 250.4Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 9.66Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 289.69Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11175, 195, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

521.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11175, 195, 5687

Auto

143.7 28%

Teleop

286.1 56%

Endgame

85.2 17%

Strengths

· 195 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 125, 8708, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

549.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 125, 8708, 6329

Auto

117.1 22%

Teleop

287.3 53%

Endgame

138.8 26%

Strengths

· 6329 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score521.2pts

Blue projected score549.8pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.6
Score range: 476–595
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 899 vs event baseline 252.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

713Season APEX799.3

143.7Auto117.1

286.1Teleop287.3

85.2Endgame138.8

0Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	166	82
teleop	240	195
endgame	121	90
foul	5	0
total	532	367

Result

Final score

532 – 367

Prediction missed · off by 96.8 pts

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