Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

528.58 – 559.07

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

455 – 455

Prediction missed · off by 88.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 713 ±9.3

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 44.11Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 245.53Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 238.94Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 799.3 ±8.8

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 253.46Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 12.81Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 292.8Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11175, 195, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

528.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11175, 195, 5687

Auto

142.3 27%

Teleop

290.9 56%

Endgame

90.1 17%

Strengths

· 195 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 125, 8708, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

559.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 125, 8708, 6329

Auto

123.7 22%

Teleop

294.1 53%

Endgame

136.6 25%

Strengths

· 6329 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score528.6pts

Blue projected score559.1pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.5
Score range: 484–604
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 910 vs event baseline 249.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

713Season APEX799.3

142.3Auto123.7

290.9Teleop294.1

90.1Endgame136.6

0Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	155	52
teleop	243	218
endgame	42	160
foul	15	25
total	455	455

Result

Final score

455 – 455

Prediction missed · off by 88.8 pts

Match videos

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