FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

120.98 – 63.28

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.9 ±11

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 66.8Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

617Enginerds

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 14.33Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 39.85Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.4 ±11

977Cometbots

Season APEX 101.5Event APEX 14.44Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 25.77Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 23.07Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3939, 617, 5804

/ 100 compat

Projected

121 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3939, 617, 5804

Auto

17.1 14%

Teleop

68.1 57%

Endgame

35.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 977, 8592, 10004

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 977, 8592, 10004

Auto

16.2 26%

Teleop

37.5 60%

Endgame

9.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121pts

Blue projected score63.3pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.7
Score range: 44–140
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 102.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.9Season APEX332.4

17.1Auto16.2

68.1Teleop37.5

35.1Endgame9.3

8Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	34
teleop	64	36
endgame	13	15
foul	25	0
total	144	85

Result

Final score

144 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 pts

Match videos

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