FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.09 – 112.26

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

138 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 13.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 565.1 ±9.3

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 68.26Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 70.8Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 22.03Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.7 ±11.7

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 49.88Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 49.12Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 13.26Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 401, 346, 11425

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 401, 346, 11425

Auto

23.6 14%

Teleop

105.3 65%

Endgame

34.1 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1262, 1086, 1522

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1262, 1086, 1522

Auto

17.4 17%

Teleop

60.7 59%

Endgame

25.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score161.1pts

Blue projected score112.3pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.8
Score range: 94–179
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 102.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

565.1Season APEX291.7

23.6Auto17.4

105.3Teleop60.7

34.1Endgame25

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	26
teleop	87	66
endgame	20	7
foul	0	10
total	138	109

Result

Final score

138 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 13.2 pts

Match videos

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