FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

259.02 – 106.84

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

326 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 76.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 564.1 ±9.3

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 112.11Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 22.99Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 123.92Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.9 ±11

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 62.04Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

617Enginerds

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 9.1Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 35.7Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 619, 5724, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

259 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 619, 5724, 2106

Auto

47.4 19%

Teleop

147.6 59%

Endgame

56.2 22%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3939, 617, 5804

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3939, 617, 5804

Auto

13.7 13%

Teleop

63.7 60%

Endgame

29.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score259pts

Blue projected score106.8pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 152.2
Score range: 89–277
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 518 vs event baseline 100.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

564.1Season APEX259.9

47.4Auto13.7

147.6Teleop63.7

56.2Endgame29.5

0Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	36
teleop	168	89
endgame	86	62
foul	5	5
total	326	192

Result

Final score

326 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 76.1 pts

Match videos

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