FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.2 – 91.66

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.1 ±12.2

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 27.14Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10257Vector Space

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 1.65Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 33.41Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.5 ±10.5

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 15.81Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 43.81Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 32.04Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3361, 10257, 404

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3361, 10257, 404

Auto

10.5 18%

Teleop

33.3 56%

Endgame

16.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8326, 540, 10224

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8326, 540, 10224

Auto

23.8 28%

Teleop

45.2 54%

Endgame

15.2 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.2pts

Blue projected score91.7pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.5
Score range: 44–110
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 101.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.1Season APEX368.5

10.5Auto23.8

33.3Teleop45.2

16Endgame15.2

56Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	26
teleop	14	56
endgame	17	42
foul	5	5
total	48	129

Result

Final score

48 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 pts

Match videos

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