FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

108.06 – 91

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.7 ±11.7

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 48.16Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 48.3Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 11.6Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.2 ±11.6

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 18.88Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 36.63Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 35.49Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1262, 1086, 1522

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1262, 1086, 1522

Auto

15.4 16%

Teleop

56.8 59%

Endgame

24.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 339, 3072, 1599

/ 100 compat

Projected

91 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 339, 3072, 1599

Auto

12.2 15%

Teleop

50.4 61%

Endgame

19.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score108.1pts

Blue projected score91pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.1
Score range: 73–126
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 101.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.7Season APEX224.2

15.4Auto12.2

56.8Teleop50.4

24.5Endgame19.8

0Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	9
teleop	77	27
endgame	32	24
foul	0	5
total	137	65

Result

Final score

137 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 pts

Match videos

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