FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.91 – 58.76

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 565.1 ±9.3

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 66.63Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 68.76Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 20.52Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.4 ±11

977Cometbots

Season APEX 101.5Event APEX 12.83Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 23.93Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 22Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 401, 346, 11425

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 401, 346, 11425

Auto

23.0 15%

Teleop

99.9 63%

Endgame

35.7 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 977, 8592, 10004

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 977, 8592, 10004

Auto

15.5 25%

Teleop

39.4 65%

Endgame

6.0 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.9pts

Blue projected score58.8pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.2
Score range: 41–174
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 100.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

565.1Season APEX332.4

23Auto15.5

99.9Teleop39.4

35.7Endgame6

0Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	17
teleop	133	34
endgame	35	17
foul	0	5
total	199	73

Result

Final score

199 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 pts

Match videos

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