FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.56 – 90.38

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

147 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 77 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.5 ±10.5

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 11.96Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 40.88Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 28.72Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.9 ±11

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 56.28Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

617Enginerds

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 3.21Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 30.89Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8326, 540, 10224

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8326, 540, 10224

Auto

21.7 29%

Teleop

40.2 54%

Endgame

12.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3939, 617, 5804

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3939, 617, 5804

Auto

9.5 10%

Teleop

56.0 61%

Endgame

26.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.6pts

Blue projected score90.4pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.8
Score range: 64–108
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 326 vs event baseline 99.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.5Season APEX259.9

21.7Auto9.5

40.2Teleop56

12.6Endgame26.3

33Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	33
teleop	72	95
endgame	29	46
foul	10	5
total	147	179

Result

Final score

147 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 77 pts

Match videos

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