FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.92 – 98.61

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 49.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 565.1 ±9.3

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 68.31Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 70.52Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 22.09Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.5 ±10.5

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 46.01Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 17.89Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 34.71Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 401, 346, 11425

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 401, 346, 11425

Auto

23.6 15%

Teleop

103.9 64%

Endgame

34.9 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 540, 8326, 10224

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 540, 8326, 10224

Auto

22.6 24%

Teleop

52.8 57%

Endgame

16.9 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160.9pts

Blue projected score98.6pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.3
Score range: 80–180
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 104.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

565.1Season APEX368.5

23.6Auto22.6

103.9Teleop52.8

34.9Endgame16.9

0Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	14
teleop	122	46
endgame	66	12
foul	15	0
total	233	72

Result

Final score

233 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 49.3 pts

Match videos

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