Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
97.36 – 123.76
42%58%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
105 – 79
Prediction missed · off by 26.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.5 ±10.5
Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 45.49Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 17.63Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 34.24Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.9 ±11
Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 67.75Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 15.35Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 40.66Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 540, 8326, 10224
62
/ 100 compatProjected
97.4 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 540, 8326, 10224
Auto
21.5 24%
Teleop
50.3 55%
Endgame
19.0 21%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 26%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3939, 617, 5804
68
/ 100 compatProjected
123.8 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 3939, 617, 5804
Auto
20.8 17%
Teleop
67.0 56%
Endgame
31.6 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 26%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.53
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score97.4pts
Blue projected score123.8pts
Red win probability42%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 26%, blue 33%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -26.4
- Score range
- 78–143
- Upset likelihood
- 42%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
368.5Season APEX259.9
21.5Auto20.8
50.3Teleop67
19Endgame31.6
47Consistency11
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 31 | 27 |
| teleop | 69 | 43 |
| endgame | 0 | 9 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 105 | 79 |
Result
Final score
105 – 79
Prediction missed · off by 26.2 pts
Match videos
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