FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

269.74 – 157.29

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

298 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 564.1 ±9.3

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 115.25Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 26.82Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 127.67Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 565.1 ±9.3

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 67.09Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 69.48Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 20.72Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 619, 5724, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 619, 5724, 2106

Auto

50.2 19%

Teleop

151.0 57%

Endgame

61.5 23%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 401, 346, 11425

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 401, 346, 11425

Auto

24.3 15%

Teleop

102.4 64%

Endgame

32.4 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score269.7pts

Blue projected score157.3pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112.5
Score range: 138–289
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 479 vs event baseline 103.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

564.1Season APEX565.1

50.2Auto24.3

151Teleop102.4

61.5Endgame32.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	20
teleop	186	113
endgame	67	48
foul	0	0
total	298	181

Result

Final score

298 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts

Match videos

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