FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.8 – 96.02

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 19.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.7 ±11.7

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 49.89Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 48.95Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 12.96Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.5 ±10.5

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 44.97Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 17.49Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 33.56Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1262, 1086, 1522

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1262, 1086, 1522

Auto

18.4 18%

Teleop

61.9 60%

Endgame

22.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 540, 8326, 10224

/ 100 compat

Projected

96 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 540, 8326, 10224

Auto

23.0 26%

Teleop

47.2 53%

Endgame

19.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.8pts

Blue projected score96pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.8
Score range: 77–131
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 103.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.7Season APEX368.5

18.4Auto23

61.9Teleop47.2

22.4Endgame19.2

4Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	12
teleop	37	71
endgame	25	19
foul	0	5
total	84	107

Result

Final score

84 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 19.4 pts

Match videos

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