FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

56.31 – 12.01

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

47 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.3 ±10.5

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 34.88Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 17.14Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 4.29Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.5 ±11

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 4.58Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 3.14Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

617Enginerds

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 4.29Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8592, 8326, 401

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8592, 8326, 401

Auto

8.2 14%

Teleop

34.7 58%

Endgame

16.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11425, 3361, 617

/ 100 compat

Projected

12 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11425, 3361, 617

Auto

5.3 40%

Teleop

5.4 41%

Endgame

2.4 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.3pts

Blue projected score12pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.3
Score range: 0–68
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 91 vs event baseline 64.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.3Season APEX177.5

8.2Auto5.3

34.7Teleop5.4

16.5Endgame2.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	8
teleop	22	25
endgame	9	11
foul	0	0
total	47	44

Result

Final score

47 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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