FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.51 – 82.92

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 90

Prediction missed · off by 31.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.3 ±11.6

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 32.33Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 65.31Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

977Cometbots

Season APEX 101.5Event APEX 13.87Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.9 ±11.7

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 24.24Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 47.66Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 11.02Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3072, 3939, 977

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3072, 3939, 977

Auto

15.9 15%

Teleop

65.0 61%

Endgame

25.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10004, 1262, 1522

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10004, 1262, 1522

Auto

19.1 25%

Teleop

43.8 58%

Endgame

12.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.5pts

Blue projected score82.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.6
Score range: 63–132
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 109.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.3Season APEX253.9

15.9Auto19.1

65Teleop43.8

25.6Endgame12.3

70Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	17
teleop	42	46
endgame	1	2
foul	5	25
total	56	90

Result

Final score

56 – 90

Prediction missed · off by 31.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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