FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.92 – 165.45

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.4 ±11

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 34.55Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 31.45Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 57.92Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 428.8 ±9.8

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 45.67Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 18.45Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 101.33Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 404, 3361, 3939

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 404, 3361, 3939

Auto

11.2 9%

Teleop

81.8 67%

Endgame

29.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1086, 10004, 619

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1086, 10004, 619

Auto

20.5 13%

Teleop

92.4 59%

Endgame

44.4 28%

Strengths

· 619 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123.9pts

Blue projected score165.5pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.5
Score range: 106–183
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 97.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.4Season APEX428.8

11.2Auto20.5

81.8Teleop92.4

29.1Endgame44.4

5Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	44
teleop	47	133
endgame	42	48
foul	5	5
total	112	230

Result

Final score

112 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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