FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.81 – 143.4

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 68.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 558.7 ±10.7

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 7.6Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 60.95Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 111.26Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.5 ±9.8

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 38.13Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 76.97Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 28.3Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1522, 401, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1522, 401, 2106

Auto

32.3 19%

Teleop

101.0 59%

Endgame

37.4 22%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5804, 346, 11425

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5804, 346, 11425

Auto

25.1 17%

Teleop

94.4 63%

Endgame

30.5 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179.8pts

Blue projected score143.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.4
Score range: 126–197
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 96.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

558.7Season APEX453.5

32.3Auto25.1

101Teleop94.4

37.4Endgame30.5

25Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	18
teleop	143	23
endgame	43	37
foul	20	5
total	256	83

Result

Final score

256 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 68.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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