FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.11 – 79.29

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 150.2 ±11.6

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 14.03Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 3.91Rank 27Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 37.17Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.4 ±12.2

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 34.44Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX -3.56Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 48.41Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5724, 2998, 3072

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5724, 2998, 3072

Auto

16.4 34%

Teleop

16.1 33%

Endgame

15.7 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1599, 9214, 1262

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1599, 9214, 1262

Auto

17.5 22%

Teleop

45.7 57%

Endgame

16.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.1pts

Blue projected score79.3pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.2
Score range: 38–96
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 95.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

150.2Season APEX216.4

16.4Auto17.5

16.1Teleop45.7

15.7Endgame16.6

26Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	16
teleop	33	101
endgame	38	10
foul	10	0
total	95	127

Result

Final score

95 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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