FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.47 – 152.68

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 109.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.4 ±11

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 45.77Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

617Enginerds

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX -0.02Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 26.72Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 506 ±9.8

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 16.63Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 35.05Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 101Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1262, 617, 10224

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1262, 617, 10224

Auto

15.3 22%

Teleop

51.9 73%

Endgame

3.7 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11425, 1086, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11425, 1086, 2106

Auto

30.7 22%

Teleop

76.3 54%

Endgame

34.5 24%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.88 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.5pts

Blue projected score152.7pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.2
Score range: 55–170
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 444 vs event baseline 92.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.4Season APEX506

15.3Auto30.7

51.9Teleop76.3

3.7Endgame34.5

9Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	65
teleop	51	159
endgame	52	82
foul	15	0
total	138	306

Result

Final score

138 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 109.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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