FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114 – 28.72

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 9.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.5 ±11

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 40.48Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 39.39Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 34.13Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 117.6 ±12.8

9709Isotope Robotics

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 12Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX 0.36Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 16.36Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3072, 5804, 3361

/ 100 compat

Projected

114 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3072, 5804, 3361

Auto

23.1 22%

Teleop

60.2 57%

Endgame

23.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9709, 9214, 5724

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9709, 9214, 5724

Auto

11.4 34%

Teleop

10.8 32%

Endgame

11.4 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114pts

Blue projected score28.7pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.3
Score range: 12–131
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 161 vs event baseline 91.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231.5Season APEX117.6

23.1Auto11.4

60.2Teleop10.8

23.1Endgame11.4

5Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	9
teleop	83	18
endgame	24	10
foul	0	0
total	124	37

Result

Final score

124 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 9.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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