FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.93 – 55.46

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 393.2 ±9.8

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 51.55Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 12.54Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 41.84Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.7 ±11.6

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 32.98Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 24.8Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

617Enginerds

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX -2.32Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 401, 11425, 1262

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 401, 11425, 1262

Auto

20.8 20%

Teleop

65.9 64%

Endgame

16.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 404, 339, 617

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 404, 339, 617

Auto

2.6 6%

Teleop

32.0 68%

Endgame

12.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.9pts

Blue projected score55.5pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.5
Score range: 39–122
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 91.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

393.2Season APEX200.7

20.8Auto2.6

65.9Teleop32

16Endgame12.3

16Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	9
teleop	89	51
endgame	35	29
foul	0	5
total	156	94

Result

Final score

156 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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