Qualification · Qualification 5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
125.41 – 71.8
66%34%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
15 – 36
Prediction missed · off by 73.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.8 ±10.5
Season APEX 210Event APEX 74.72Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 12.3Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 38.39Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.2 ±12.2
Season APEX 21.8Event APEX 5.69Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 32.26Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 33.85Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 401, 617, 5804
66
/ 100 compatProjected
125.4 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 401, 617, 5804
Auto
22.6 19%
Teleop
72.6 60%
Endgame
26.2 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 30%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1915, 404, 10224
49
/ 100 compatProjected
71.8 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 1915, 404, 10224
Auto
12.4 17%
Teleop
42.2 59%
Endgame
16.6 23%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 30%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.05
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score125.4pts
Blue projected score71.8pts
Red win probability66%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 30%, blue 33%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 53.6
- Score range
- 52–145
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
357.8Season APEX217.2
22.6Auto12.4
72.6Teleop42.2
26.2Endgame16.6
16Consistency52
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 9 | 9 |
| teleop | 5 | 22 |
| endgame | 1 | 5 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 15 | 36 |
Result
Final score
15 – 36
Prediction missed · off by 73.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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