FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.93 – 61.37

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 40

Prediction missed · off by 46.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.3 ±12.2

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX -7.06Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 35.25Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 6.74Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.4 ±12.8

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 39.81Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4286Imperial Robotics

Season APEX 12.6Event APEX 7.1Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9709Isotope Robotics

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 14.46Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9214, 3072, 8592

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9214, 3072, 8592

Auto

13.8 38%

Teleop

15.7 43%

Endgame

6.7 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1086, 4286, 9709

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1086, 4286, 9709

Auto

1.8 4%

Teleop

32.4 65%

Endgame

15.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score34.9pts

Blue projected score61.4pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.4
Score range: 18–78
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 91.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.3Season APEX176.4

13.8Auto1.8

15.7Teleop32.4

6.7Endgame15.6

62Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	11
teleop	49	16
endgame	30	13
foul	0	0
total	107	40

Result

Final score

107 – 40

Prediction missed · off by 46.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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