FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.26 – 94.89

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.1 ±9.8

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 94.35Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 12.11Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 29.8Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.8 ±11.7

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 12.56Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 34.84Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 47.49Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 619, 5724, 3361

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 619, 5724, 3361

Auto

16.6 12%

Teleop

82.0 60%

Endgame

37.4 27%

Strengths

· 619 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1522, 5804, 3939

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1522, 5804, 3939

Auto

17.8 20%

Teleop

50.3 55%

Endgame

22.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136.3pts

Blue projected score94.9pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.4
Score range: 79–152
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 334 vs event baseline 90.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.1Season APEX251.8

16.6Auto17.8

82Teleop50.3

37.4Endgame22.9

46Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	6
teleop	104	96
endgame	35	40
foul	20	0
total	192	142

Result

Final score

192 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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