Qualification · Qualification 46
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
114.82 – 120.26
48%52%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
97 – 116
Prediction correct · off by 11 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.2 ±11.7
Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 50.48Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 24.41Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 39.93Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.4 ±10.5
Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 29.92Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 21.94Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 68.4Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 540, 6802, 1599
73
/ 100 compatProjected
114.8 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 540, 6802, 1599
Auto
22.5 19%
Teleop
62.2 54%
Endgame
30.9 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10224, 8326, 346
71
/ 100 compatProjected
120.3 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 10224, 8326, 346
Auto
18.0 15%
Teleop
76.6 65%
Endgame
23.7 20%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.37
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score114.8pts
Blue projected score120.3pts
Red win probability48%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 32%, blue 29%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -5.4
- Score range
- 99–136
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
296.2Season APEX457.4
22.5Auto18
62.2Teleop76.6
30.9Endgame23.7
0Consistency5
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 13 | 17 |
| teleop | 55 | 83 |
| endgame | 29 | 16 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 97 | 116 |
Result
Final score
97 – 116
Prediction correct · off by 11 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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