FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

121 – 103.26

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 193

Prediction missed · off by 66.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.8 ±11.7

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 109.54Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 13.03Rank 27Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX -1.57Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 398.2 ±10.5

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 32.6Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 42.72Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 27.94Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2106, 2998, 9214

/ 100 compat

Projected

121 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2106, 2998, 9214

Auto

27.2 24%

Teleop

58.2 52%

Endgame

26.2 23%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1262, 401, 3072

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1262, 401, 3072

Auto

23.9 25%

Teleop

60.7 64%

Endgame

10.6 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121pts

Blue projected score103.3pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.7
Score range: 87–137
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 88.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.8Season APEX398.2

27.2Auto23.9

58.2Teleop60.7

26.2Endgame10.6

72Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	20
teleop	14	119
endgame	19	49
foul	5	5
total	78	193

Result

Final score

78 – 193

Prediction missed · off by 66.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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