FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.96 – 61.57

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.1 ±11.7

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 27.75Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 11.89Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9709Isotope Robotics

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 17.32Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.5 ±10.4

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 14.92Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 28.35Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 18.3Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 339, 8592, 9709

/ 100 compat

Projected

57 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 339, 8592, 9709

Auto

3.7 7%

Teleop

35.5 70%

Endgame

11.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5724, 10224, 10004

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5724, 10224, 10004

Auto

13.0 22%

Teleop

29.7 51%

Endgame

15.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57pts

Blue projected score61.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.6
Score range: 41–78
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 95 vs event baseline 90.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.1Season APEX280.5

3.7Auto13

35.5Teleop29.7

11.3Endgame15.6

44Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	19
teleop	15	35
endgame	4	5
foul	5	0
total	36	59

Result

Final score

36 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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