FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

88.6 – 88.33

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

150 – 165

Prediction missed · off by 69 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.3 ±9.8

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 38.08Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 3.18Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 47.34Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.1 ±11.7

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 56.53Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 31.24Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4286Imperial Robotics

Season APEX 12.6Event APEX 0.56Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3939, 11425, 540

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3939, 11425, 540

Auto

21.6 25%

Teleop

48.1 55%

Endgame

17.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 346, 1599, 4286

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 346, 1599, 4286

Auto

13.0 15%

Teleop

62.1 71%

Endgame

12.3 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.6pts

Blue projected score88.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.3
Score range: 72–105
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 89.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.3Season APEX370.1

21.6Auto13

48.1Teleop62.1

17.9Endgame12.3

62Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	7
teleop	75	105
endgame	43	53
foul	0	0
total	150	165

Result

Final score

150 – 165

Prediction missed · off by 69 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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