FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.49 – 143.46

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 10.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.2 ±12.2

1915Firebird Robotics

Season APEX 21.8Event APEX 2.57Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 42.48Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 22.44Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326.8 ±11.2

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 91.67Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 22.09Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 29.7Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1915, 1086, 8326

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1915, 1086, 8326

Auto

10.7 18%

Teleop

33.2 56%

Endgame

15.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 619, 6802, 5804

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 619, 6802, 5804

Auto

24.3 17%

Teleop

80.9 57%

Endgame

36.2 26%

Strengths

· 619 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.5pts

Blue projected score143.5pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -76
Score range: 51–159
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 88.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.2Season APEX326.8

10.7Auto24.3

33.2Teleop80.9

15.3Endgame36.2

19Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	20
teleop	20	100
endgame	33	41
foul	0	0
total	64	161

Result

Final score

64 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 10.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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