FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.58 – 85.76

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

112 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.8 ±10.4

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 23.49Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 2.95Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 23.14Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.4 ±12.2

10257Vector Space

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 24.53Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 24.75Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 36.48Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1262, 8592, 10224

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1262, 8592, 10224

Auto

14.8 32%

Teleop

32.3 71%

Endgame

-1.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10257, 5724, 3072

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10257, 5724, 3072

Auto

14.1 17%

Teleop

36.8 45%

Endgame

31.7 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49.6pts

Blue projected score85.8pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.2
Score range: 34–102
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 155 vs event baseline 89.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.8Season APEX205.4

14.8Auto14.1

32.3Teleop36.8

-1.3Endgame31.7

52Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	19
teleop	82	22
endgame	3	2
foul	0	0
total	112	43

Result

Final score

112 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 52.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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