FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.17 – 121.73

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

11 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 105.8 ±12.8

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 24.02Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4286Imperial Robotics

Season APEX 12.6Event APEX 6.19Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX -5.04Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 430.7 ±9.8

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 30.79Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 76.73Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 14.21Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3361, 4286, 9214

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3361, 4286, 9214

Auto

6.3 33%

Teleop

9.2 49%

Endgame

3.4 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5724, 346, 339

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5724, 346, 339

Auto

15.9 14%

Teleop

68.0 59%

Endgame

31.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score25.2pts

Blue projected score121.7pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.6
Score range: 5–142
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 82 vs event baseline 109.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

105.8Season APEX430.7

6.3Auto15.9

9.2Teleop68

3.4Endgame31.5

29Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	4
teleop	8	32
endgame	0	35
foul	0	0
total	11	71

Result

Final score

11 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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