FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.04 – 163.76

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 19.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.1 ±12.2

617Enginerds

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 7.4Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 42.71Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX 6.93Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 514.6 ±9.8

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 30.55Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 112.1Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 21.11Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 617, 1086, 9214

/ 100 compat

Projected

57 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 617, 1086, 9214

Auto

2.7 5%

Teleop

26.8 53%

Endgame

20.8 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3939, 2106, 10004

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3939, 2106, 10004

Auto

28.1 19%

Teleop

90.3 61%

Endgame

29.1 20%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.7 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57pts

Blue projected score163.8pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -106.7
Score range: 41–180
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 86.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.1Season APEX514.6

2.7Auto28.1

26.8Teleop90.3

20.8Endgame29.1

18Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	33
teleop	50	97
endgame	20	53
foul	0	0
total	76	183

Result

Final score

76 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 19.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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