FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.33 – 149.5

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 59.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.5 ±11.1

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 10.94Rank 27Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

977Cometbots

Season APEX 101.5Event APEX 8.84Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 42.55Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.2 ±11.7

9709Isotope Robotics

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 28.57Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 26.84Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 94.09Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2998, 977, 346

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2998, 977, 346

Auto

8.7 14%

Teleop

43.3 71%

Endgame

9.4 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9709, 8326, 619

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9709, 8326, 619

Auto

15.3 10%

Teleop

90.2 62%

Endgame

41.0 28%

Strengths

· 619 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.79 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.3pts

Blue projected score149.5pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87.2
Score range: 47–165
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 85.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.5Season APEX270.2

8.7Auto15.3

43.3Teleop90.2

9.4Endgame41

92Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	18
teleop	84	75
endgame	50	31
foul	0	0
total	155	124

Result

Final score

155 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 59.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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