FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.75 – 33.07

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

103 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.9 ±11

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 36.11Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 30.41Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 29.23Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 115.1 ±12.8

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 23.92Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1915Firebird Robotics

Season APEX 21.8Event APEX 5.99Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 3.16Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 339, 5804, 1599

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 339, 5804, 1599

Auto

21.0 24%

Teleop

45.5 52%

Endgame

20.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6802, 1915, 11425

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6802, 1915, 11425

Auto

13.0 36%

Teleop

17.8 49%

Endgame

5.3 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.8pts

Blue projected score33.1pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.7
Score range: 18–111
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 123 vs event baseline 86.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.9Season APEX115.1

21Auto13

45.5Teleop17.8

20.5Endgame5.3

0Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	18
teleop	65	2
endgame	16	0
foul	0	0
total	103	20

Result

Final score

103 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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